Coronavirus Info

I like these Financial Times graphs from FT Peak Charts   The log scale makes it easy to measure the %change between peak and recovery, and the slopes are %change/day because linear differences on a log chart are multiplicative changes.

The Johns Hopkins map is good.  I like switching the lower right graph to daily cases.

The Virginia Department of Health Coronavirus info site has several ways to drill down into local data near me.  Top level, I like the “Key Measures”  graphics that separate out the NOVA outbreak and recovery from the rest of the state.  The big takeaway is that excluding NOVA, the rest of the state just only ‘bent the curve’ to a temporary stalemate, and then gave up.  I like putting the Cases, Hospitalizations, Deaths and %positive graphs together into a tweet like this.  I like the ‘by date reported’ graphs over the ‘by symptom onset’ graphs, since the latter are right censored and are biased downwards until the new data stops trickling in.

I also like because it does that looks like a reasonable projection of what we’re headed for–the error band increases as it looks further into the future, and it distinguishes between active infections and total infections.

Somewhat related is, that tracks the Rt for the states as it changes through time.



Zeiss Dahlta 010 manual

I was looking for a manual for Transit / Theodolite / Tacheometer and found the huge product literature archive at Zeiss at, and with my poor german, I accidentally requested these manuals for the Zeiss Dahlta 010 Self-reducing Tacheometer.  If you have a use for them, here they are.


54271 and 83873

York County FY2020 Budget

The York County VA  school district and BOS are working on the budget.

The YCSD has two pages with interesting links: and

The BOS has this  

I still think the YCSD/BOS is planning for overcrowded, substandard facilities.  Overcrowded based on the current and future enrollment predictions in last year’s Facilities Master Plan and this year’s enrollment in the Budget Outlook Presentation, the capacity changes in the proposed YCSD CIP and the 85-90% of instructional capacity goal explained by Dr. James in this video: YCSD Dr. James on 85-90%  The substandard facilities come from the overcrowding stressing the sites.


Going forward, YCSD’s FY2020-2025 Facilities master plan projects enrollments forward to 2025.  I highlighted the elementary, middle and high school enrollments at the 100% and 90% thresholds:




The elementary plan looks grim.  There are plans to add 6 classrooms at Seaford Elementary and another elementary school at Marquis Center, but the 150+500=650 additional seats doesn’t cover the anticipated 760 seat shortfall, leaving the system at 101% in FY2025.  To cover the anticipated 6657 students at the 85-90% level, you’d need 1500-1934 seats of additional capacity, or 850-1284 more than York County is planning for.

Two areas where school facilities are clearly overstressed are the usable site sizes and the play areas as compared to the enrollments.  The VDOE requires usable site sizes of 4 acres + 1 acre per 100 kids for elementary schools, where useable means the buildable areas within the building line setbacks not the total lot area.  These are further constrained by shared use, such as sharing fields with the parks department, or other programs, like head start, pre-K, boys & girls club, or other schools.  If the lot size is constrained, like at Yorktown Elementary School, adding modular buildings on the paved areas to handle increased attendance can interfere with the VDOE standard of having two hard surface play areas at elementary schools with more than 400 kids.  See if you can find the hard surface play areas at YES dulnn2qxcaaksqj

If you combine the Facilities Master Plan, the current enrollments, the projections in the Facilities Master Plan and the capacity improvements in the proposed CIP you get two important measures of overcrowding.  Current elementary K-5 enrollment is 5717 as compared to 5852 seats of instructional capacity.  That is 5717/5852=97.69% of instructional capacity, or 451 students higher than the 85-90% range that YCSD says is their goal.  In the CIP they plan to add a 500 seat school at Marquis, and 6 more classrooms at Seaford in the next few years to make 6502 seats by 2025,  but as the years progress, YCSD also projects more growth and additional students.  Last year’s FMP plan underestimated FY2019 enrollments by 5717-5675=42 students and projects 6241 students in FY2024.  The current FMP takes extrapolates to at 6657 students in FY2025.  Comparing that to the capacity gives 6657/6547=101.7% of instructional capacity.  Aiming for the 85% to allow for future growth would require 6657/.85=7831 seats of capacity, or 7831-6547=1284 additional seats of instructional capacity.  That would mean building out the Marquis school to 700 and building another 1084 seats worth of elementary school.

The enrollment of 98% of instructional capacity means that you can’t use redistricting to redistribute students around to schools to achieve levels in the ideal range.  Even if you had perfect bussing, fairly distributing the students would make all the schools overcrowded above the 90% threshold.

I had a meeting with Dr. James and Mr. Bowen of YCSD this morning to discuss these issues.  At the end of the process, I still think the York County needs to change their plans to meet overcrowding and state standards by the end of their planning horizon.  To do that, they need to add another 30M$ school to be completed in FY2025, and plan to build out about 30% more capacity at Marquis.  Fixing the inadequate site sizes at the existing schools is a harder problem.






York County YCSD twitter post

York County and its school division have twitter, and I like posting links to this set of tweets that shows of the poor planning that got the York County School Division into the place where we’ve got overcrowded elementary schools and substandard facilities:

If you follow that link, you’ll see links to the documents and to Dr. James talking about the consequences of crowding above 90% of instructional capacity.

Their main twitter pages:

Tracfone default zipcode

It would have saved days and hours if any of the many tech support people involved knew this fact about doing a port-out of TracFone and port-in H2OWireless:


We have checked on the account. In porting a number out, you need to provide the default ZIP code which is 33178.”

Initially, we got an incomplete transfer from TracFone with an “Invalid zipcode” rejection, then neither the current address nor previous address, nor permutations of the addresses and zip codes, not cut and pasted, no nothing, worked.  Then, on the 8th day, the little tidbit above cleared it up 30 minutes into a multi-way tech support chat.

33178 is TracFone’s corporate address:

Redistricting won’t solve overcrowding letter & Letter opposing Lightfoot development

There are two letters here — one regarding the YCSD attendence zone rebalancing and one regarding the BOS approval of the Lightfoot development.


Letter to Chad Green and Mark Medford after Redistricting committee meeting:

Dear Sirs,

I attended the attendance zone meeting last night as a non-participating member and was surprised at the updated enrollment projections.  Page 4 of the Oct 4 handout shows attendance levels that appear to put the enrollments about 2 years ahead of the December 2016 YCSD facilities master plan.

Additionally, the redistricting consultant work appears to focus on the building sizes rather than the instructional sizes, and also is still unclear as to the goals.   For instance, specification number one in the redistricting process is “Realign school attendance zone areas so the distribution of students matches the instructional capacity or the building capacity”  — you folks spent a lot of time and effort over the last year or so explaining the need to use instructional capacity rather than the misleading building capacity.  To consider reverting to building capacities for the redistricting decisions confuses the issue and uses the inferior metric you spent the last year disparaging.

That the elementary system is already at 93% of instructional capacity guarantees that even if redistricting boundaries and transportation was not a constraint, any redistricting plan will certainly overcrowd schools above the ideal of 85-90% capacity. (If you are thinking that the goal should be 100% of instructional capacity, as implied by the tables in the FMP and consultants presentation, consider that you can’t move surplus 4th graders into under-enrolled kintergarden and 5th grade classes, and that the middle and high school systems are at about 75% instructional capacity.)

The touchstones that I’d test the redistricting plans against is how well it distributes the overcrowding above 90% instructional capacity relative to the facilities, and how the solutions impact the facilities compliance with state standards.  This process of rehashing building capacity vs instructional capacity, and K-5 vs pre-K-5 enrollments vs building capacity and instructional capacity looks like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

From what I saw last night, you are being overly optimistic that future enrollment will be lower than expected and that the Marquis school will be an adequate solution to overcrowding over your 6 year planning period.

The fact that YES has substandard facilities, temporary trailers, and overcrowding at the 111% level after the 8+ years of planning for the new elementary school shows that the county has done a poor job of oversight.  The fact that the current plans are inadequate to bring the system-wide elementary enrollments to less than 90% of instructional capacity indicates a poor job of planning for the future.

Please, show me I’m wrong.


Letter to BOS Chad Green regarding the Lightfoot development on 2017 Oct. 17 BOS meeting:
Dear Mr. Green,

The Lightfoot development plan on the BOS agenda tonight adds 248 additional housing units to an elementary school system already overcrowded above 93% of instructional capacity.   The YCSD facilities master plan expects overcrowding in the elementary schools above 90% for the foreseeable future, showing that York County does not have sufficient elementary school resources to approve additional housing units.

I ask that you defer approval of this development until after the county can produce a master plan which will eliminate the overcrowding.

Note that the metrics and goals used for the current attendance zone rebalancing process hide the extent of the overcrowding problem by shifting from instructional capacity to building capacity, and by aiming for 100% building capacity.   While looking at the enrollment plans, please compare the over/under 100% building capacity over/under red fonts in the rebalancing plans to Dr. James’ ideal of 85-90% of instructional capacity, and also to the 75% of instructional capacity for the middle and high school systems.

Approving the Lightfoot development plan is inconsistent with the six-year YCSD Facilities Master Plan, will make the overcrowding worse, and will make the school facilities more sub-standard than they already are.

Please oppose this development.

YCSD Redistricting doesn’t solve overcrowding in its elementary schools

The proposed redistricting plans do not solve the overcrowding problems at Yorktown Elementary and other schools in York County.

York County posted some modification plans of the attendance zones for the elementary schools for the 2017 April 17 special meeting which seems to show that moving the zones will solve the overcrowding problem.  However, in the analysis they present, they revert to using the building capacity numbers rather than the instructional capacity numbers the School Division put forward last year.

Using the 2016 instructional capacities with the proposed redistricting plans gives the results below.

Screen Shot 2017-04-17 at 12.33.22 PM

(Excel spreadsheet:YCSD_redistricting)

I’ve highlighted the overcrowded elementary schools with enrollments above the level of 85-90% of instructional capacity that Dr. James spoke of as the ideal range of instructional capacity utilization. Note that the WMES numbers include the in-process addition.

Looking at the numbers for the proposed plans, several of the schools currently in or below the ideal 85-90% range will be pushed up to nearly 100% of utilization of instructional capacity.

See these resources:

2017 April 17 Exec Summary of Attendence Zone Changes

2016 May 9 Instructional Capacity Presentation

Questions for the BOS and YCSD

I asked these questions in email, at the March 20 School Board Meeting (video) and at the March 21 Board of Supervisors meeting (video at 56:30).

Do you know what it would cost or what it would take to get the schools to meet state standards?

Do you know what it would cost or what it would take to get the overcrowding down to the 85-90% level?

Do you know what it would cost or what it would take to provide adequate school resources to cover the planned developments?

If you don’t know what it would take to provide adequate resources, you aren’t doing a good job of oversight.

The Marquis site has a usable lot size of 9.7 acres, per Mark Carter. (York County Elementary Usable Lot Sizes)  A 700-core capacity elementary school requires 11 acres of usable lot size, per the state DOE standards. (see here)  The new site does not meet state standards for a 700 student core capacity school.

Dr. James presented a projection of 5924 students in 5876 seats of “revised instructional capacity” as 101% overcrowding.  (2016 May 9)  With a full build out the Marquis school to 700 students, this is a projection of 5924/(5876+700)=90.1%, which is at the top end of the 85-90% range, and that assumes there is no new development in York county before the Marquis school is built out.  Even at 700 seats, there isn’t enough excess capacity planned to reduce overcrowding to acceptable levels.  With Marquis at 500, it is 92.9%.

Yorktown elementary has trailers parked on its two hard surface playgrounds, no librarian, and has had class sizes of 37 students.  We are currently providing inadequate, substandard schooling.

I don’t trust the planning that got us into the state we are in, and from looking at the current plans, it really doesn’t seem like the board is aiming to do better.

I fear that you do not know what it would take to fix these problems, and that the school board has not provided a plan to cover these necessities.

What I want you to do now is to direct the school division to plan to meet state standards, to eliminate overcrowding, and to cover developments already approved by the county.  If you expect any additional growth in the next few years, you should include additional planned capacity to cover it.  We should aim to provide enough capacity for 85% utilization rather than the already overcrowded 90.1% or 92.9% utilization provided by the 500 or 700 seat Marquis school plan.

YCSD’s mission — Provide Adequate Resources?

Comments at 2017 Jan 23 YCSD School Board Meeting as prepared:

My parents and few others have asked me what I want to get out of standing up here.  I would like you to provide adequate resources to enable our children to thrive.

York County School Division recently ran several Strategic Planning Forums to examine and revise the strategic plan (YCSD Mission, (flyer) Goals, Objectives and Strategic Plans).  I participated in the Grafton Session on Jan 13th.

The most recent status update is the 2016 Strategic Plan Update which identifies a number of the goals and sub-objectives and correlates these with metrics and assessments.  Part of the visioning exercise was identifying changes to the objectives.  In light of the overcrowding and inadequate resources, I looked at the mission, goals and objectives for something addressing the responsibility of YCSD to provide adequate resources to meets state and federal standards and to avoid overcrowding.  None of the objectives seems to capture this idea, instead prescribing standards that the students and teachers must meet.

The closest items were under the Goal #5 “he York County School Division will maintain efficient, effective, service-oriented operations that support student achievement in safe, secure environments”:

  1. Objective: Customer needs will be met or exceeded by Operations Staff members. Customer service surveys will be conducted by November 1 of each year. Survey results will be used to support the provision of efficient, effective, service-oriented operations.
  2. Objective: Staff will create a ten-year facility master plan and a proposed capital improvement program aimed at maintaining safe, high-quality facilities. Annual building inspections, roof surveys, data relating to work orders, revised construction cost projections, and updated long-term enrollment projections will be used to identify needed adjustments.
  3. Objective:  Staff will support safe, secure educational environments. Examples of activities relating to this objective include the following actions: collaborating with local public safety agencies; maintaining appropriate administrative staffing; conducting annual maintenance of surveillance cameras and access control; reviewing/refining crisis management plans annually; and participating in safe schools training.

I suggested they add an objective for the YCSD to provide adequate facilities meeting state and standards; and another objective to reduce overcrowding to the 85-90% level.

I do not think YCSD meets these objectives.  Overcrowding of the elementary system is at the 97% level overall, which makes it impossible to redistrict schools into the 85-90% level.  Schools on the North end of the county are overcrowded at the 143%, 113, and 115% levels.  These burdens on inadequate sites make it impossible to meet state standards, like the complete lack of outdoor hard surface play areas at YES, as compared to the state standard requirement of two.

I would like you to develop a strategic plan that provides adequate resources to enable our children to thrive.  Your strategic planning since 2013 hasn’t accomplished that, and with the current CIP and communications between the board and BOS, the future looks bleak.

You’ve made tradeoffs between adequate facilities and limited resources, settling for a 9.7 acre usable lot size for a core 700 student school which would require 11 acres.  Inadequate site size at the existing school makes the parking and drop-off management complicated and dangerous, necessitating future, expensive redesigns to correct problems that could have been avoided in the initial design.  Sharing sites with other programs might looks like a cost efficiency, but it puts additional burdens on limited lot sizes.

The Strategic Plan’s Mission, Goals, and Objectives should provide guidance to organization members make decisions, tradeoffs, and plans consistent with the organizations values.  The current plan makes demands of the students and teachers without committing to providing adequate resources.

I know three families who’ve avoided moving to Yorktown because of the elementary schools.

In the past year, you’ve compromised and deferred significant amounts of maintenance and improvements at no apparent cost, trading plans for adequate resources for compliance with a weak revenue growth model, and encouraging the BOS to cut your budgets even further. Is the demographic, development, and depreciation models so inferior to economic model that this is a good idea?

When I asked about the county budget planning specifics, Jeffrey Wassmer and Neil Morgan said the numbers are “placeholders”, and “a plan is a plan” to express the uncertainty in the out years.

The long term CIP should have “placeholders” that provide adequate resources to meet state standards and reduce overcrowding to 85-90%.

What I want out of the strategic plan, the CIP and my time standing up here is an plan, one where you take responsibility to provide adequate resources for our children to thrive.

York county is planning for decay rather than growth

My comments at the 2016 November 15 BOS meeting  (video posted in the video archive ):

The new elementary school is inadequate.  At 500 seats, it does not provide the capacity needed to cover the enrollment expected by the development plans already on the books.  At a 9.7 acre usable lot size, as in the email from Mark Carter that I forwarded to you, the proffered Marquis site is substandard for a 700-seat core capacity school.

On March 1st, Neil Morgan presented the 10-year historical funding average of 6.7M/year. (see Neil Morgan’s March 1 presentation)  That could be adequate to offset decay on 250M worth of infrastructure on a standard 40 year depreciation schedule, but with 20 schools, each worth more than 25M each, York County Schools has more than a half billion worth of infrastructure, and we aren’t keeping up.  This is a recipe for decay and substandard schools.   Our entire elementary school system is currently at 97% capacity, with the most stressed schools operating at 113-143% capacity. (See Dr. James May 9 presentation)  Redistricting to get the YCSD schools into the 85-90% range is impossible with the system-wide load already at 97%.  At Yorktown elementary with 115% capacity, the school has substandard parking, substandard lot size, a substandard cafeteria, and substandard hard-surface play areas.  Both of its play areas have temporary buildings parked on them until the new school comes on line. How can you expect YES to function as an effective magnet school if it is already so far above capacity? And the proposed CIP extends the modular building leases out another two years to 2021.  (See FY2018 proposed CIP  p11.)

I’ve told the school board should it ask for more from the county, but from what I’ve been told, the county directed the school division to limit its plans to match the county’s economic projections under the no new revenue model. Specifically with last year’s deferrals, they were directed to ignore the added costs of inflation and decay. If you were to ask a roofing contractor to defer a quote for two years and hold to the same price, they’d laugh at you and tell you it could cost 20% more.  If you direct the School Division to make unrealistic assumptions to meet your economic targets, rather than tell it to ask for enough to maintain the schools, we’re doomed to continue to have substandard schools. With inadequate funding, it is not a Capital Improvements Plan, it is a Capital Decay Plan.

Since 2009 we’ve known that today’s level of school enrollment was in the works, and yours and the school divisions funding and planning produced the current dismal level of overcrowding and substandard schooling.  This unacceptable outcome should not have been a surprise.

This six-year plan does not cover the enrollment projections already on the books.  The Waller Mill addition and the 500 seat Marquis school will only bring the system down to 93% capacity, still too high for rezoning to bring the schools below 90%.   And that’s ignoring adding any capacity for new development not yet on the books. Are you folks asking good enough questions? Do you understand the implications of your decisions?

Your central job is supposed to be planning and oversight, but from the plans so far, it looks like you are planning for continued substandard schools and continued decay of the York County school system.

Note Thomas Shepperd’s comments on proffers, lobbyists, state delegates & votes at 54:30 in